What’s happened to Greggs? Understanding Evolving Treat Culture

Today Greggs has reported a slowdown in sales growth - up just 4.2% in the first 10 weeks of 2025, compared to 17.1% growth in the same period last year. This feels a little concerning given that consumers generally do continue to treat themselves despite inflationary pressures.

So, what’s happening here? The weather was terrible, and, of course, that will suppress demand. Maybe consumers are seeking out healthier snack options? Maybe Greggs isn’t hitting the spot anymore, and consumers are buying treats elsewhere? But do we also need to consider the impact of rising prices on what consumers consider to be affordable? As costs increase, even small treats can start to feel like a stretch for shoppers. We are seeing this play out in beauty at the moment – Coty’s stock has dropped by 56% in the last 12 months, and Estée Lauder is down 50%. Perhaps the ‘Lipstick Effect’ is starting to wane as even these small cosmetic purchases have started to feel out of reach.

Instead, it had appeared that the ‘sweet treat economy’ was gaining traction, replacing beauty products as the preferred affordable luxury for many consumers in need of a little boost. The last few years have seen massive growth in independent bakeries in the UK, and sales of Danish pastries have leapt 15% year on year in supermarket in-store bakeries. In this context, the Greggs numbers do feel a bit worrying - are people now being priced out of even a low-cost sweet treat?

Whether this trend is primarily due to weather conditions or signifies a more considerable shift remains to be seen. Either way, this development underscores a couple of crucial points for brands: now more than ever, understanding evolving treat culture and the definition of ‘treat’ feels critical, and maintaining the perception of value is absolutely essential, even for the likes of Greggs.

Photo by Lisa from Pexels: https://www.pexels.com/photo/greggs-sausage-rolls-restaurant-3024532/